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Forum:2017-18 Australian Region cyclone season
Betting pools for this page Related Pages: *2017-18 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season (Betting pools) *2017-18 South Pacific cyclone season (Betting pools) November TCWC Jakarta Tropical Low (93S.INVEST) The first invest of the season is here (I think). It's currently in TCWC Jakarta's region and I doubt it will become anything significant. ~ Steve Talk Page 02:49, November 10, 2017 (UTC) :There was one in August, but this forum wasn't created yet. However, this one is much weaker and probably won't be anything. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 11:43, November 10, 2017 (UTC) 02U.CEMPAKA 95S.INVEST New one up on Tropical Tidbits/NRL located just south of Jakarta. ~ Steve Talk Page 03:13, November 20, 2017 (UTC) This looks like something we'll have to watch. Models spin it up into a pretty strong cyclone in a couple days. Hilda anyone? - Garfield : Now low chance on JTWC. This has some real potential to be Hilda. Here comes the first TC of the SHem season! ~ Steve Talk Page 21:08, November 21, 2017 (UTC) : Off JTWC, but still active as an invest. ~ Steve �� Happy 19:49, November 23, 2017 (UTC) : On JWTC again as ~~Low chances~~ JoeBillyBob (talk) 12:28, November 26, 2017 (UTC) Code yellow again. ~ Steve Talk Page 03:05, November 26, 2017 (UTC) !CODE RED!(ON JTWC)!WARNING! JoeBillyBob (talk) 07:22, November 27, 2017 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Cempaka aaaaaand its here and not expected to develop further. JoeBillyBob (talk) 05:05, November 29, 2017 (UTC) :This is the first TCWC Jakarta system since Bakung of December 2014. Not very often do we see storms here. Anyway this should remain weak. ~ Steve Talk Page 22:18, November 27, 2017 (UTC) :actually,the latest bulletin from TCWC Jakarta says it;s going to intensify to 45 knots or more JoeBillyBob (talk) 12:06, November 28, 2017 (UTC) ::Not too bad for a TCWC Jakarta storm so far. Hi!- 14:34, November 28, 2017 (UTC) :::Wikipedia reports that the cyclone has already caused 11 fatalities. :( ~ Steve Talk Page 23:37, November 28, 2017 (UTC) ::::JTWC just cancelled their TCFA. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:46, November 29, 2017 (UTC) Tropical Depression Cempaka Oh well.Congrats on being the earliest named storm since 2013 and the earliest TCWC named storm since 2007! JoeBillyBob (talk) 07:02, November 29, 2017 (UTC) Remnants of Cempaka Has been dropped by TCWC Jakarta, and TCWC Perth doesn't expect much redevelopment. JTWC has also dropped it. ~ Steve Talk Page 21:47, November 29, 2017 (UTC) 03U.DAHLIA 96S.INVEST Code yellow on JTWC and located west of Sumatra. ~ Steve �� Happy 19:49, November 23, 2017 (UTC) :Now orange. ~ Steve Talk Page 03:05, November 26, 2017 (UTC) : Tropical Low 03U Now numbered as "03U". Also TCWC Jakarta forecasts it to intensify into a C1 tropical cyclone. Could we already see Dahlia? Two TCWC Jakarta named storms within the span of a week would be insane, considering how inactive it usually is there. ~ Steve Talk Page 23:37, November 28, 2017 (UTC) There is a TCFA on JTWC now. JoeBillyBob (talk) 07:07, November 29, 2017 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Dahlia And so we do. I wonder if this made the record books for the most active start to the TCWC area of responsibility. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] My Birthday 20:51, November 29, 2017 (UTC) Sadly,I think 2001-02 did better. JoeBillyBob (talk) 21:21, November 29, 2017 (UTC) :That was in the span of a whole season, not two days. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] My Birthday ::This is actually the first time there have been 2 or more TCWC Jakarta named systems during the whole season since they took over the region in 2007. Even stranger, it's within the span of a week! :O Obviously the most active start in TCWC Jakarta records dating to 2007. Current intensity of Dahlia is 40 mph/998 mbars. ~ Steve Talk Page 21:47, November 29, 2017 (UTC) :::Ikr. That was the strangest thing that had ever happened to this basin. Hi!- 14:33, November 30, 2017 (UTC) ::::Yep, it surely is. Current intensity is 50 mph/993 mbars. TCWC Perth forecasts a C3 (Australian scale) cyclone. ~ Steve Talk Page 02:32, December 1, 2017 (UTC) ::::Now 60 mph and a category 2,according to TCWC's darwin and perth. JoeBillyBob (talk) 08:36, December 1, 2017 (UTC) :::::Downgraded to a Category 1, 40 mph/996 mbar. Hi!- 18:43, December 2, 2017 (UTC) ::::::And expected to weaken further. At least it is staying out to sea and never harmed anyone, unlike the deadly Cempaka and Ockhi... ~ Steve Talk Page 01:09, December 3, 2017 (UTC) Ex-Tropical Cyclone Dahlia Just after writing the above post, I checked BOM and it has unexpectedly dissipated. Might reintensify to a C1 though. ~ Steve Talk Page 01:27, December 3, 2017 (UTC) : Actually I don't think that materialized. Now not expected to redevelop. ~ Steve Talk Page 02:00, December 5, 2017 (UTC) TCWC Darwin Tropical Low there is another tropical low in the Australian basin. JoeBillyBob (talk) 00:24, November 25, 2017 (UTC) :In the Banda Sea and not expected to develop. ~ Steve Talk Page 03:10, November 26, 2017 (UTC) :long dead.... JoeBillyBob (talk) 22:53, November 29, 2017 (UTC) December Tropical Low west of the Timor Sea (97S.INVEST) Another one expected to move southwest into roughly where Dahlia is supposed to be now. Not going to develop though. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:01, December 1, 2017 (UTC) : Yeah, it won't develop tbh. And it appears to have been invested, because 97S is up in this region on Tropical Tidbits. ~ Steve Talk Page 01:10, December 3, 2017 (UTC) :Dead ~ Steve Talk Page 01:58, December 5, 2017 (UTC) Tropical Low south of the Solomon Islands (98P.INVEST) Being monitored on BOM's eastern outlook. See the South Pacific forum for a couple more posts concerning this system. Highly doubt this will become much. ~ Steve Talk Page 01:58, December 5, 2017 (UTC) : It dissipated. Hi!- 14:24, December 6, 2017 (UTC) Timor Sea tropical low (92S.INVEST) Currently on TCWC Darwin and TCWC Jakarta's outlooks. It's doubtful if this will be anything significant, however. ~ Steve �� Happy 06:32, December 24, 2017 (UTC) Tropical low just north of the Indonesian Archipelago Not yet a full-fledged tropical low as of the time of this writing. However, it has a decent chance to develop in the long run. TCWC Perth has it up with a "moderate" chance for Tuesday and it could track towards the north Kimberley coast. Hilda, anyone? ~ Steve �� Happy 06:32, December 24, 2017 (UTC) :Actually, Steve, this is supposed to become a 905 mbar C5 by December 26. This will be very significant. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] My Birthday 13:59, December 24, 2017 (UTC) ::BoM gives this a high chance of developing into a TC by 28 December. There again both the GFS and ECMWF don't do too much with this right now, likely due to land interaction. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:24, December 25, 2017 (UTC) :::I feel like we will going to see another destructive cyclone. Hi!- 20:15, December 25, 2017 (UTC) ::::The JTWC has it on code orange. It is Invest 92S as per the JTWC.